India’s Afghan Strategy after the US Pullout
What Happened?
The US, under Donald Trump, mediated a deal with the Taliban that ended the longest American war. According to the deal, the USA, along with its allies, will withdraw its troops completely from Afghanistan while the Taliban will enter the intra-Afghan dialogue.
Ever since the US started withdrawing its troops, the radical Islamist outfit has made significant gains in Afghanistan. It has taken control of some of the crucial provinces and border areas. As the pullout nears, Afghanistan has seen a sudden spike in violence. A spokesperson of the Taliban has said that it controls around 85% of the region- a claim refuted by President Ashraf Ghani.
Pakistan-Taliban Bonhomie
It would do well to remember that the Taliban and Pakistan share a history of religious extremism. According to some reports, there has been a heavy exchange of weapons and workforce between the two sides. Mr. Ghani recently took a swipe at the Pakistan PM Imran Khan as he alleged the invasion of Jihadi Taliban supporters from Pakistan. Pakistan had threatened Afghanistan Air Force and Army against taking action against Taliban insurgents in the Spin Boldak border area. Islamabad has also been repeatedly accused of supporting terrorism across borders in Afghanistan and India. A Taliban-ruled Afghanistan can prompt Rawalpindi to reignite the separatist movement in Kashmir. Though Islamabad maintains its commitments to peace and stability in the region, its actions say otherwise.
Afghan Strategy of India
India being an influential player in the region, should ensure that Afghan people choose who will govern them. India has maintained, like other allies, that it will not recognize a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan if it comes to power by force. It has held strategic talks with the Taliban to persuade them into an inclusive government in Kabul. Given the Taliban’s aggression in the region, India should ensure that it brings the Taliban back to the negotiating table else the future consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace. As the uncertainty of the future of Afghanistan looms, India has started an open dialogue with Taliban leaders to ensure that it does not compromise its national interests. New Delhi should find a middle path between officially recognizing the Religious extremist group and being indifferent to its presence. Recently, the Taliban said that it wanted a political situation in Afghanistan. S Jaishankar, Foreign Minister of India, in company with his counterparts in the neighborhood should maximize their efforts to prevent the Taliban from coming to power.
Relations With Other Countries
Apart from India, Pakistan, China, Russia, the US, and its NATO allies are other stakeholders in the conflict. Tensions with China, which peaked last year after the Galwan Valley standoff, and ceasefire violations from Pakistan, presented India with a two-front war situation. But, the ceasefire announced in February 2021 by the DGsMO of India and Pakistan and further attempts to normalize relations seems to have cooled things down a bit. Its sustainability is questionable given Islamabad’s earlier U-turns on its commitments. It should be a matter of concern for New Delhi as the impact of a vicious trio of Taliban-Pakistan-China is not limited only to India’s security but also has a tremendous impact on the world order. India should also be wary of Beijing’s aggressive expansion in the region, like the Belt and Road Initiative. China sees India as a serious threat to its dominance in Asia. Thus, India should work with other like-minded countries and groupings like the Quad to contain Chinese hegemony. Though Russia eyes the quad cautiously, it is unlikely to hamper defense ties between Moscow and New Delhi severely.
It is clear that sooner or later, the Taliban is going to capture power in Afghanistan. We must also understand that the time is long gone when we can isolate them. Afghanistan has geopolitical importance that is crucial for neighboring countries. Thus, India should start engaging with the Taliban, keeping in mind its national interests. But, we must not give up on our attempts to establish a peaceful and progressive society devoid of religious extremism in Afghanistan.
